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Wave Analysis from InstaForex


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#401 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 07:03 AM

USD/CHF right on major support, prepare for a bounce
 
The price is now testing major support at 0.9569 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) and we expect a bounce above this level to push the price up to at least 0.9699 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance). 
 
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing major support above 3.7% where a corresponding bounce could occur. 
Buy above 0.9569. Stop loss at 0.9501. 
Take profit at 0.9699.
 
analytics5a680ce7c8b41.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


#402 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 05:53 AM

Pound updates annual highs on the background of the report on the labor market
 
The euro managed to strengthen against the US dollar in the morning against the backdrop of data indicating the likely retention of the euro zone's economic growth rates earlier this year. However, a serious breakthrough in important levels of resistance has not occurred, indicating a restrained demand for risky assets. 
 
According to the IHS Markit report, Germany's economy continues to show good results in early 2018 due to the growth of activity in the services sector. So, the index of supply managers for the German services sector in January 2018 increased to 57.0 points against 55.8 points in December. Economists, on the contrary, expected a decline in the index. The index for the manufacturing sector in January fell slightly, to 61.2 points. 
 
In the eurozone, there are also signs of stable growth, as evidenced by the data. 
 
According to the IHS Markit report, the preliminary composite index of supply managers of the eurozone in January 2018 increased to 58.6 points against 58.1 points in December. It should be noted that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. This growth in the index corresponds to a quarterly growth of the economy by 1%.
 
1516798861_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
In France, the preliminary index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in January this year dropped to 58.1 points against the December value of 58.8 points. But the preliminary index of supply managers for the services sector, on the contrary, increased in January to 59.3 points against 59.1 points in December. Economists had expected that the service sector index would drop to a level of 58.9 points. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, there have been no significant changes. The main objective of euro buyers today will be to keep above the 1.2300 area, which will make it possible to count on continuing the upward trend, with the update of the new significant highs of 1.2390 and 1.2430. 
 
The British pound continued its growth against the US dollar, after it became known that the employment rate in the UK from September to November 2017 reached a record high. Meanwhile, wages in the UK declined, which indicates a worsening of the financial situation of consumers after the referendum on Brexit. 
 
According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics, the employment rate in the UK was 4.3%, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. The average earnings in the UK for the period increased by 2.4%, while real wages fell by 0.5%.
 


#403 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:15 AM

NZD/USD right on major support, time to go long
 
analytics5a6a9235c07ca.png
 
The price is testing major support at 0.7312 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, long-term ascending support, bullish price action) and a bounce could occur at this level to push the price up to at least 0.7436 resistance (major swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension). RSI (55) sees a long-term ascending support line since November 2017 hold up our bullish momentum really well. We're starting to see a possible break of this long-term support line but our major support remains at 51% and only a clean break of that level would be a precursor that a drop is coming. Buy above 0.7312. Stop loss at 0.7256. Take profit at 0.7436.
 


#404 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 04:32 AM

Nobody wants currency wars
 
Eurozone 
 
Markets continue to assess under the microscope the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Mario Draghi's press conference started with a few dovish statements, as Draghi focused on the slowness and austerity, indicating that it is not necessary to wait for surprises and, especially, some severe steps from the ECB. 
 
Draghi called for dividing the expectations for the rate and the regulation of the asset purchase program. Regarding the rate, Draghi spoke directly, he said, the chances of an increase this year are small. With regards to the repurchase of assets, the position is more hawkish, as Draghi had to declare sustainable economic growth, which could mean confirmation of plans to curtail the repurchase program. 
 
The ECB's lending report released on Friday showed that in December the growth rate of lending to the private sector and non-financial organizations slowed somewhat, but annual rates remain firmly strong, which confirms the conclusion about the sustainability of economic growth in the euro area.
 
analytics5a6c20bc3ee14.png
 
A member of the ECB Executive Board, Benoit Coeure, commented on US Treasury Secretary Munchin's previous statements, saying that attempts to target exchange rates could provoke a currency war, and this is the last thing the world needs. On Thursday, indicating a similar tone, Draghi spoke out, as the issue for the euro is important - excessive strengthening can put downward pressure on inflation, as imports cheapen. 
 
On Tuesday, a preliminary GDP report will be released for the fourth quarter, with a forecast of a 2.6% growth, which is no worse than in the US, which means it will support the euro, all other things being equal. On Wednesday, the report on inflation in January will be released, the forecast is negative, the euro could be under pressure. In general, the reasons for the euro to continue growth without a correction are few, likely a decrease to 1.2323 and consolidation just below the peaks that were reached. 
 
United Kingdom 
 
The UK economy grew slightly stronger in the fourth quarter than forecast, which had a limited support for the pound, which once again renewed its peak after Brexit. However, NIESR forecasted the possibility of growth up to 0.6%, so the market was not very surprised by the result.
 
analytics5a6c20d631223.png
 
The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, made an attempt on Friday to knock down a wave of demand for the pound, which, however, proved unsuccessful. Answering a question in an interview with the BBC about quantifying damage from Brexit, Carney said that the country's GDP lost 1% of its growth rate, and by the end of 2018 these losses will grow to 2%. To date, the result of Brexit has been a decline in economic activity of tens of billions of pounds, and it takes time to achieve a higher growth potential. 
 
Carney highlighted the main point - companies are cutting back on investments, as they are waiting for clarity on the UK's trading positions after it leaves the EU. 
 
On Tuesday, the Bank of England will report on consumer and mortgage lending in December. On Wednesday, the Gfk index on consumer confidence will be released. The pound looked very strong last week, and went far into the overbought zone, but the momentum is still strong, and therefore the highs will likely be updated, the nearest support is 1.3995. 
 
Oil 
 
Oil adheres to the most likely scenario, once again the peak is updated, the trends remain the same. Saudi Energy Minister Khaled al-Faleh said in Davos that $25 from its current price is secured by the OPEC + deal, confirming the cartel's position to adhere to the plan to stabilize the market. There is no reason to expect that the OPEC + countries will voluntarily give up the mechanism that fills the scarce state budgets of the oil-producing countries.
 


#405 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 30 January 2018 - 05:18 AM

Gold forming a cup and handle reversal, prepare for a strong drop!
 
analytics5a6fda905b59f.png
 
Gold has formed a really strong reversal of a cup and handle formation. We look to sell below major resistance at 1344 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, cup and handle breakout level) where a strong drop is expected to push the price down to at least 1325 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension). 
 
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing descending resistance hold it down really well which corresponds to the drop we're expecting. 
 
Sell below 1344. Stop loss at 1353. Take profit at 1325.
 


#406 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 31 January 2018 - 08:54 AM

NZD/USD starting to show signs of a bounce, remain bullish
 
The price continues to test our buying area and ascending channel support. We think that it might be doing a fake breakout now because RSI has not broken below 50% yet. We remain bullish above major support at 0.7312 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, long-term ascending support, bullish price action) for the price to continue its push up to at least 0.7436 resistance (major swing high resistance, Fibonacci extension). 
 
RSI (55) major support remains at 50% and only a clean break of that level would be a precursor that a drop is coming. 
 
Buy above 0.7312. Stop loss at 0.7256. Take profit at 0.7436.
 
analytics5a71248a43e81.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


#407 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 01 February 2018 - 04:31 AM

Inflation did not please investors
 
The European currency managed to strengthen its positions against the US dollar in the first half of the day, but riskier assets did not receive more powerful support from the large players, as the inflation data in the euro zone fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. 
 
The situation in the German labor market is excellent. According to the data, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased, and unemployment reached a record low level. 
 
Thus, the number of unemployed in January this year fell by 25,000 compared to December 2017. Economists had expected a reduction of 16,000. In January, the Federal Labor Agency of Germany registered 736,000 vacancies, which is 89,000 more than in January 2017. 
 
The unemployment rate in Germany fell to 5.4%. 
 
Not surprisingly, after such data, and based on past reports, the German Ministry of Economy raised the forecast for GDP growth in 2018 to 2.4% from 1.9% after growing by 2.2% in 2017. It is expected that such a strong growth will be due to good external and internal demand, as well as good labor market conditions. 
 
The inflation data did not cause any serious changes in the market, as investors expected more serious changes in the dynamics. 
 
According to the report, in January this year, compared with the same period of the past, the consumer price index rose by 1.3%, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. As you can see, the current level is far from the level set by the European Central Bank, which is slightly below 2%. Core inflation rose to 1% from 0.9%.
 
1517406829_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
As for the euro-zone labor market, according to the statistics agency's report, the unemployment rate in the eurozone in December 2017 remained unchanged at 8.7% against 8.7% in November. Economists also forecast the current level of unemployment. 
 
Data from ADP did not strongly support the US dollar, although they were much higher than economists' forecasts, which indicates the good position of the US labor market. 
 
According to the report, the number of jobs in the private sector in the US increased by 234,000 in January this year, while economists forecast an increase of 193,000. The ADP noted that there was a strong hiring of medium and large companies. 
 
A serious breakthrough of the level of 1.2450 did not happen. Most likely, traders took a wait-and-see attitude before the Fed decision on interest rates, and the publication of the accompanying statement. Only a real breakthrough of the range 1.2445-1.2455 will lead to continued growth in risk assets with an update of 1.2500 and a new high at 1.2560.
 


#408 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 02 February 2018 - 03:09 AM

The buyers of the euro are ready
 
1517491817_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
Despite weak performance in the manufacturing sector, the European currency continues to make attempts to grow against the US dollar. It is maintaining an upward price channel. 
 
It was only in Italy where there was an increase in the index of production while in France and Germany, the similar index slowed slightly. 
 
According to the report of the statics agency, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in Italy for the month of January this year rose to 59.0 points, compared to 57.4 points in December last year. Economists predicted the index at the level of 57.3 points. 
 
In France, there is a marked decrease in activity in the manufacturing sector. According to the report, the index of supply managers for the manufacturing sector in January fell to 58.4 points against the December index of 58.8 points. Economists and market participants did expect a decline to the level of 58.1 points. 
 
In Germany, the index of supply managers also slowed its growth. According to the data, PMI for Germany's manufacturing sector in January fell to 61.1 points against 63.3 points in December 2017. Economists had expected the index to fall to the level of 61.2 points. 
 
If we talk about the euro area as a whole, then there is also a slight decline. According to the statistics agency, the index of supply managers PMI for the production area of the eurozone in January dropped to 59.6 points, compared to 60.6 points in December. The data fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. 
 
It is important to note that finding the index above the level of 50 points indicates an increase in activity. 
 
The current data that's at a rather slight decline in indicators at the beginning of this year will not likely affect the data on GDP seriously in the first quarter of 2018, which is confirmed by the market reaction to the data. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, so far the situation is developing in favor of buyers as it managed to keep the trade in an upward price channel. The lower limit of this level is at the January 30 low. The breakthrough of resistance at the level of 1.2470 opens up good prospects for the EURUSD pair for further growth of the trading instrument in the area of annual maximums at 1.2540. 
 
A similar index that's already in the UK, also did not put pressure on the British pound, even despite its slowdown to a 6-month low. 
 
According to a report by research company IHS Markit Ltd., the index of supply managers for the UK manufacturing sector in January was 55.3 points compared to 56.2 points in December. The value of the index above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Economists had expected the index to be 56.5 points.
 


#409 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 05:04 AM

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 05, 2018
 
The pair is struggling to consolidate the price action above the resistance level of 1.4280 and it seems that the 200 SMA could act, once again, as a dynamic support. If that happens, GBP/USD could resume the overall bullish bias and can skyrocket towards the 1.4393 level. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory, calling for a leg lower.
 
GBPUSDH1.png
 
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4280 / 1.4393 
H1 chart's support levels: 1.4060 / 1.3937 
 
Trading recommendations for today: 
Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.4280, take profit is at 1.4393 and stop loss is at 1.4168.
 


#410 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 06 February 2018 - 05:06 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 06, 2018
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Retail PMI, French Gov Budget Balance, and German Factory Orders m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, and Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2444. 
Strong Resistance:1.2437. 
Original Resistance: 1.2425. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.2413. 
Target Inner Area: 1.2384. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.2355. 
Original Support: 1.2343. 
Strong Support: 1.2331. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2324.
 


#411 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 05:00 AM

The deficit of foreign trade in the US at record highs
 
Despite the good data for Germany, which came out in the morning, demand for the US dollar remained. 
 
According to the report of the German Ministry of Economics, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in December last year grew due to strong demand from abroad. Thus, the total volume of production orders in December 2017 increased by 3.8% compared with the previous month, while economists expected that the growth in December will be 0.6%. 
 
As I noted above, the leaders were export orders, which grew by 5.9%, while internal orders increased by only 0.7% compared to the previous month. 
 
The US dollar has ignored the data on the next wave of growth of foreign trade deficit in the US, which peaked in nine years. This happened as a result of growth in imports due to strong consumer demand. 
 
According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the foreign trade deficit in December 2017 increased by 5.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 53.12 billion US dollars. Economists had expected a deficit of $52.0 billion.
 
1517931198_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
Import to the US grew by 2.5% to $ 256.5 billion. The increase in imports of goods during the holiday season had a negative impact on the indicator. There was also an increase in imports of cars and capital goods. Export grew by only 1.8% to $ 203.4 billion. 
 
Speech by Fed official Bullard was generally ignored by the market. 
 
Fed President St. Louis James Bullard said today that the relationship between the employment market and inflation has disrupted, and inflation expectations have risen. First of all, he was referring to the latest report of the US Department of Labor, which pointed to a serious increase in labor forces and an increase in wages, which would definitely spur inflation in early 2018, giving it a serious upward momentum along with economic growth. 
 
Bullard also noted that the tax bill will promote investment growth, but the monetary policy is currently close to neutral and does not need to be adjusted. 
 
It is worth paying attention to the fact that his opinion is at odds with the recent statements of his colleagues, in which it was clearly indicated that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. 
 
The deficit of Canada's foreign trade in December grew due to the fact that imports prevailed over exports, which slowed significantly compared to the previous month. 
 
According to the Bureau of Statistics of Canada, the foreign trade deficit in December 2018 increased by 3.19 billion Canadian dollars. Economists forecast a deficit of C$ 2.25 billion in December. Imports in December rose by 1.5%, to a record level of 49.70 billion Canadian dollars, while exports increased by 0.6%, to 46.51 billion Canadian dollars.
 


#412 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 08 February 2018 - 05:02 AM

Daily analysis of USDX for February 08, 2018
 
The index managed to do a rebound above the 200 SMA and gathered momentum towards the 90.30 level. A higher continuation is expected once USDX does a break above 90.63. To the downside, the 200 SMA continues to provide dynamic support but if it gives up, the bearish side could get again another breath.
 
USDXH1.png
 
H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.63 / 91.75 H1 
chart's support levels: 89.36 / 87.88 
 
Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 89.36, take profit is at 87.88 and stop loss is at 90.81.
 


#413 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 09 February 2018 - 04:55 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 09, 2018
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian Industrial Production m/m and French Industrial Production m/m. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Final Wholesale Inventories m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2314. 
Strong Resistance:1.2307. 
Original Resistance: 1.2295. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.2283. 
Target Inner Area: 1.2254. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.2225. 
Original Support: 1.2213. 
Strong Support: 1.2201. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2194.
 


#414 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:13 AM

Euro and Pound Test Key Support
 
Eurozone 
The euro makes weak attempts to stay above 1.22, but success is possible only if the wave of panic in the stock and debt markets goes down, taking the form of correction, although deeper. 
On Wednesday, the consumer inflation index will be published in Germany in January. It is expected to show a decline from 1.6% to 1.4% relative to December, but according to the forecast, the HICP index should remain unchanged at 1.4%. Also on Wednesday, Eurostat will publish an estimate of the eurozone's GDP in the fourth quarter, and there are no reasons for concern either - the PMI Markit and ESI economic activity indicators calculated by the European Commission are growing at a record pace, which, given the high correlation between PMI and GDP, which makes it possible to look at economic growth with optimism.
 
analytics5a7e9a2315d85.png
 
The problem for the eurozone is something different - the growing surplus of foreign trade leads to the need to seek the use of surplus capital. At the same time, the growth of inflation in the eurozone is not sufficient to force the ECB to begin the unwinding of its monetary policy. The spread between the yields of European and American securities is growing, and the capital from the eurozone will be in demand by investors in the US if rates in US banks continue to grow, especially since the threat of four rate hikes in the current year suddenly became real. 
 
Monetary authorities of the eurozone will not prevent the outflow of excess capital, since this process will allow the euro to be controlled, but if the panic in the markets continues and it comes to a serious crisis, the euro may significantly weaken. Correction of the EUR USD pair is not yet completed, it is possible to decrease to 1.21, but the chances to stay above this support are still high. On Monday, the euro could return to zone 1.2305 / 20, further dynamics will be determined by whether a wave of panic that has covered the markets will develop. 
 
United Kingdom 
The pound last week has undergone multidirectional pressure. On Wednesday, the Bank of England supported the pound, leaving the rate unchanged and at the same time hinting that it could accelerate the process of raising rates due to higher economic growth rates. 
 
Updated forecasts suggest GDP growth in 2018 at 1.8%, which, however, is below the growth rates in the US and the euro area, the equilibrium unemployment rate is reduced from 4.5% to 4.25%, and inflation by 2020 will be 2.2%, which is higher than the target 2%, which means an increase in the rate is required. 
 
At the same time, as can be seen from the report, the growth of inflation occurred due to other goods, that is, most likely due to imports. The strengthening of the pound eliminates this factor in the coming months.
 
analytics5a7e9a3b05011.png
 
However, on Friday, the pound's declined resumed after the EU negotiator Michel Barnier stated that the Brexit agreement might not be reached. It is obvious that Brexit still remains the main factor of influence on the pound rate. 
 
On Tuesday, data for January on retail sales and consumer inflation will be published. The forecasts are neutral and meet the expectations of the Bank of England. Determining the dynamics of the pound will continue to be based statements on Brexit, as well as the development of the situation with sales in the stock and debt markets. At the level of 1.3700/30 is the key support level, the pound has a chance to stay higher, the breakdown will worsen the technical picture and will contribute to a rapid decline on the background of flight from risk. 
 
Oil 
The weakening of oil looks like a rout, which is expected, based on the development of the situation in the markets. Oil reacts to the threat of slowing the growth of global GDP and the development of a full-scale crisis, and this is the main driver of decline. 
 
Another factor contributing to the decline is the production growth in the US. In addition, Baker Hughes reported a sharp increase in the number of drilling last week by 29 pcs, which indicates an increase in investment in the industry. 
 
Support for Brent resisted until 60.98, the channel is still up, so growth attempts after the formation of the bottom are not ruled out.
 


#415 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 05:47 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 13, 2018
 
analytics5a826ab99f60c.png
 
Wave summary: 
The rally from 1.6854 is not yet convincing, but if support at 1.6897 is able to protect the downside for a new rally above minor resistance at 1.7023 the correction in wave ii should be complete and wave iii developing for a rally to and above resistance at 1.7479 on the way higher to 1.7777. 
 
A break below 1.6897 will risk a new decline to 1.6853 and maybe even closer to 1.6830 before wave ii is complete. 
R3: 1.7045 
R2: 1.7023 
R1: 1.6966 
Pivot: 1.6897 
S1: 1.6878 
S2: 1.6853 
S3: 1.6830 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We are long EUR from 1.6977 with our stop placed at 1.6845.
 


#416 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 15 February 2018 - 03:37 AM

Good data on inflation led to the growth of the US dollar
 
The euro slumped in relation to the US dollar in the morning, before the release of important data on inflation in the US. The main reason for the pressure on the euro could be data on the slowdown in economic activity in Germany at the end of last year. 
 
According to the report, Germany's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the previous quarter, increased by 0.6%. In annual terms, growth was 2.3%. These data fully coincided with the forecast of economists. 
 
As noted in the statistics agency, the good growth rates are maintained due to the high external demand for premium goods. The acceleration of exports was also indicated. 
 
Inflation in Germany slowed at the beginning of this year, which is an alarming call for the ECB. According to the data, the consumer price index fell by 0.7% in January of this year compared with December 2017, which fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. Core inflation fell by 1.0%. 
 
Italy's GDP showed the fastest growth in the last seven years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics Istat, Italy's economy in 2017 grew by 1.6% compared with 2016. 
 
As for the growth of the eurozone's GDP, the growth in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter was 0.6%, and compared to the same period in 2016, GDP increased by 2.7%. These data also fully coincided with the forecasts of economists. 
 
The good economic indicators of the Eurozone at the end of 2017 have repeatedly led the European Central Bank to pay attention to the current situation in monetary policy, as well as the volume of the bond repurchase program, the reduction of which could lead to further euro growth in the medium term. 
 
Data on the growth of inflation in the second half of Wednesday increased demand for the US dollar, which managed to regain even more positions lost at the beginning of the week against the euro and the British pound. 
 
According to the report, the consumer price index in the US in January 2018 increased by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of economists, who expected an increase in inflation of only 0.3%. Compared to the same period in 2017, inflation increased by 2.1%.
 
1518615551_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
The base index, which does not take into account volatile prices, increased by 0.3% in January, with a growth forecast of 0.2%. Compared to the same period in 2017, the index grew by 1.8%. 
 
Given such good performance, the short-term growth of the US dollar against the euro and the pound may continue, as it is possible that a good inflation rate in the US could seriously affect the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, which could again be hiked this spring.
 


#417 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 19 February 2018 - 04:40 AM

The dollar takes the initiative
 
Positive macroeconomic data allowed the dollar to finally recoup from a prolonged fall caused by panic sell-offs in stock markets. 
 
Against the euro, the dollar fell below the psychological level of 1.24, the reason was the increased demand for the dollar after unexpectedly positive data on the housing market for January. The number of new buildings grew by 9.7%, experts expected growth of only 3.4%, and also by 7.4% the number of building permits increased with a forecast of 3.5%. Growth in activity in the construction sector may lead to a slowdown in housing prices. 
 
The University of Michigan's report on consumer confidence turned positive, the sentiment index rose to 99.9 against 95.7 in December, apparently, the mood of the taxation was positively influenced by the start of the tax reform, with a deterioration in sentiment rather than growth. The peak that was formed - the second since 2004 - indicates that in the American society, the perception of reforms is assessed positively. 
 
In addition, the rise in prices for imports and exports were above forecasts, which will affect inflation, and we will get quite a confident growth in the dollar, even despite the recent turmoil in the stock market.
 
analytics5a87ca0b74136.png
 
The forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta improved slightly and amounts to 3.2% on Monday evening. The negative from the weak data on retail sales and consumer inflation is somewhat stable, the threat to the selling of the dollar has decreased significantly. 
 
Markets can not yet understand how the tax reform will affect the US economy. In pre-election promises, Trump focused on the fact that he would begin to reduce the budget deficit and the huge debt, but in reality so far everything is developing in the opposite scenario. The budget deficit will significantly increase this year, as well as the level of public debt. As for the corporate sector, there is still no desire to reduce borrowing, on the contrary, the benefits of tax cuts can cause not a decrease in debt, but its growth - companies intend to issue more bonds this year than in 2017. This trend , if it is implemented, can completely reverse the intent of the tax reform on its head. 
 
The key event of the upcoming week is the publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting on January 31. The test of the statement slightly changed in regards to the meeting in December, but it was impossible to understand what estimate the members of the Cabinet gave to the launched tax reform. A detailed alignment can again lead to an increase in volatility, since the forecast for the number of rate hikes this year will directly depend on it. While the markets are confident of two increases in March and June, further opinions vary, and the protocol can greatly affect market sentiment. Business activity indexes from Markit will also be released on Wednesday.
 
analytics5a87ca21554e1.png
 
At the moment, the dynamics of the indices is opposite, the production PMI rose in January to 55.5p compared to 55.1p in December, which indicates the strongest growth in the manufacturing industry since March 2015. Regional data show continued growth, the ISM index rose more than expected , so on Wednesday, most likely, there will be a confirmation of growth in business activity. 
 
At the same time, in the service sector, activity slowed for several months in a row, which quite distorted the overall picture. It is expected that against the backdrop of growing consumer confidence and confident labor market data, the PMI index in the services sector will also show growth, which will provide additional support to the dollar. 
 
Thus, by the end of the week, the dollar managed to survive the blow and has good chances to stay on the achieved levels. 
 
Monday is a holiday in the US, so strong movements due to lack of objective data are not expected. The likelihood against commodity currencies appears to be at its highest, however, the yen will not enjoy less demand, the growth of usdjpy is unlikely. It is also possible to resume demand for gold and the Swiss franc.
 


#418 InstaForexGertrude

InstaForexGertrude
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Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:13 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 20, 2018
 
analytics5a8bb38d4a435.png
 
Wave summary: 
A break above the minor resistance at 1.6865 will indicate that the wave ii has completed and the wave iii higher to 1.7470 and 1.7777 is developing. 
 
As long as the minor resistance at 1.6865 is able to cap the upside as long must we allow for a final spike lower to 1.6740 before completing the wave ii. 
R3: 169.78 
R2: 1.6860 
R1: 1.6825 
Pivot: 1.6770 
S1: 1.6740 
S2: 1.6681 
S3: 1.6630 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We are long EUR from 1.6790 with stop placed at 1.6690.
 


#419 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted Yesterday, 06:28 AM

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 21, 2018
 
NZDUSDM30.png
 
Our first downside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. NZD/USD is still expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is capped by a bearish trend line since February 16, which confirmed a negative outlook. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum. 
 
To conclude, below 0.7375, look for a new drop with targets at 0.7305 and 0.7280 in extension. 
 
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades. 
 
Resistance levels: 0.7410, 0.7440, and 0.7485. 
Support levels: 0.7335, 0.7295, and 0.7330.
 





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