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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart


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#1 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 25 July 2016 - 04:30 AM

Hello forum members!

 

Good day!

 

I am Andrea, an official representative of ForexMart.

 

Me and my colleagues will provide you daily forex analysis on this thread to help you increase your trading efficiency as well as maximizing your profit. Suggestions, comments or opinions are all welcome. We will also be glad to attend to your inquiries.

 

We hope to hear from you soon!

 

Thank you!

 

Best regards,

 

ForexMart

 

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#2 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 25 July 2016 - 08:39 AM

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2016

 

The GBP/USD is observed to fall off throughout the week with an amount implied as a support near the 1.29 level. Eventually, the Brexit brought a negative concerns to the U.K economy. GBP/USD resulted a downtrend pressure on prices even when the sellers actively managed the progression of the price from 1.3300 to 1.3100. Other technical studies showed that the pair continued to move in a bearish position. The support can be seen at 1.3300 while the potential area of the resistance exists at 1.3100.

 

The momentum indicator, MACD showed a decreased in the average of prices. The MACD histogram will indicate a growth in selling if it adopts a negative territory and if the MACD swings into the positive territory, it will give the investors a chance to have more control over the trades.

 

In case that the price stock is directed below the level of 1.3100 as its support, it may remain to move on a downward trendline with a potential target at 1.2900.

 
 
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#3 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 27 July 2016 - 09:57 AM

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 27, 2016

The EUR/GBP pair went up by 47 points as the British pound reversed its gains after comments from the Bank of England made traders upset, as well as forecasts that the UK will most probably go into recession after the Brexit vote. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which issues monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys of the UK economy, a “Flash UK PMI” survey will soon be published which will reportedly follow the principles of Markit’s Flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

Last week’s market activity already exhibited the effects of the Brexit vote on Britain’s declining economic status. An additional report from CIPS/Markit indicated that business activity in the region has been declining at a fast rate, its fastest since 2009. The Composite version of the survey which was released last Friday printed at 47.7, its lowest dip since April 2009.

 
 
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#4 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 27 July 2016 - 10:48 AM

NZD/USD Technical analysis: July 27 2016

 

Regardless of the news about the subsidence in the Trade Balance during the month of June, the NZ Dollar continued to increase at constant rate.

 

The currency rate of the NZD/USD sharply moved upward and dropped toward the resistance level of 0.7050. A break beyond the level of resistance or support made the bullish sign to fade considerably. The pair steep down the lower level at 0.7050 while bearish investors take control of the gaining market. As shown in the 4-hour chart of the NZD/USD currency pair, the resistance level is seen at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.

 

The MACD is plotted along the centerline by which the histogram signals moves in the negative territory showing the strength of the seller but if the index swings to the positive territory, it only means that the buyers will keep control over the market. The momentum oscillator RSI is retraced to the area of the overbought condition in the market which may be observed as a sell signal.

 

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the New Zealand dollar was able to break the 50,100 and 200 day EMA . Though the bid or ask quotes did not pursue any further as well as the 100-EMA declined the currency pair, the moving average price of the NZD/USD is sloping downward with a bearish MACD which crosses over from the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs.

 

Trading analysts believes that the bearish market will continue to prevail in the market. Technically, the following stop price will be placed at 0.6980


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#5 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 10:22 AM

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 28, 2016

 

The British Pound’s value decreased after Wednesday’s session in spite of the positive GDP data for the 2nd quarter of the year. But the sterling pound obtained support from the United States after the Fed’s decision to keep their rates unchanged.

 

The GBP/USD pair remained neutral all throughout the session last Wednesday, with its trading instrument maintaining a support of 1.3100. Meanwhile, the resistance amounted to 1.3300. MACD’s indicator has dropped near the centerline, which signals a negative outcome for this particular indicator. A lack of movement from the histogram and its refusal to leave negative territories will mean a significant increase in the strength of buyers. However, if the MACD returns to its positive state then the buyers will ultimately have the ball, while the RSI remains ambiguous.

 

A downward trend is also seen in the 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, which eventually led to a bearish cross forming in the hourly charts. The instrument went over the said EMAs and went past the 1 hour chart.

 

Ultimately, trends are looking bearish, with the GBP/USD pair in danger of falling below 1.3100. But this does not not eliminate the possibility of the said currency pair experiencing an increase of up to 1.3300.

 

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#6 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 11:19 AM

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: July 28 2016

 

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is preparing to issue an economic stimulus package about the competitive sale of Japan's Fuji TV last Tuesday that reached around 27 trillion yen but Japanese Yen still declined against the U.S Dollar. The exchange rate of USD/JPY is 105.568, up 0.953 or +0.91%.

 

The report from Kyodo News about the upcoming announcement of Abe made the US Dollar to gain more over Yen instead, and it approximately achieve $354 billion or 28 trillion yen.

The stimulus plan of Abe is already prepared before the policy meeting of the Bank of Japan finishes on Friday. The BoJ will lend their support for the monetary policy stimulus.

 

USD/JPY is expected to receive a support from the U.S Federal Reserve policy statement if they would release it at 1800 GMT because the Fed would not modify their interest rate in any moment. However, many investors are anticipating for a rate hike in Fed since there is a fifty percent possibility that the BoJ will have an increased on interest rate just before the December meeting take place.

 

A Fed rate hike will probably occur this month when the U.S economic reports will suppose to have a stronger result than expected. The U.S Federal Reserve considers some improvement in the labor market, wage growth and inflation before establishing a rate hike before the year ends.

 

An inflation hawk will allow the pair USD/JPY to make a progress but may recede if the Fed finishes a dove stances. In the rear of such issues and feedback, the main subject will be the resolution of BoJ on Friday.

 
 
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#7 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 09:52 AM

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: July 29, 2016

 

The EUR/GBP pair increased by 62 points after the euro went up and the sterling pound declined during Thursday’s session. The currency pair is presently trading at 0.8425 points. The British pound still continued its decline even after a reported second-quarter increase in UK’s economic growth, whose increase was initially seen to be a positive sign for the currency pair.

 

The UK economy went up by 0.6% during the second-quarter which was sealed by the controversial Brexit vote, a significant increase compared to the 0.4% during the first quarter of 2016. The British pound plummeted its lowest in two weeks after Bank of England policymaker Martin Weale said that PMI surveys would be of importance during BoE’s next policy meeting. He also added that in order for an interest rate cut to happen, there must be a concrete evidence of the UK economy losing its strength.

 

In July, the Bank of England shocked the financial market when it refused to snip the benchmark for the borrowing cost from its all-time low of 0.5%. However, decision details from last week’s BoE meeting showed that most policymakers will be expected to endorse a yet unknown set of measures in order to help strengthen Britain’s economy.

 
 
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#8 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 10:28 AM

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016

 

The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.

 

The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.

 

RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.

 

The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.

 

In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.


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#9 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 01 August 2016 - 09:41 AM

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016

 

The AUD/USD pair went significantly higher last Friday after the disappointment caused by the stimulus measurements of the Bank of Japan and the weak US GDP report. This increase was further augmented by the inflation data of the Australian market and the neutrality of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement.

 

This coming Tuesday, investors are anticipating the rate statement of the Australian Reserve Bank, where a lot of investors believe that the central bank will decrease its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points from 1.75% to possibly up to 1.50%. The main trend went down after the Federal Reserve’s statement caused a volatile reaction. However, should there be a trade at .7675, the main trend may change according to the daily swing chart.

 

Friday’s close indicated a strong buying, after the testing of the retracement zone of .7490 to .7571 which has been tested all throughout the month of July, with its major range at .7834 to .7145. The retracement zone is now in control of the market’s long-term direction.

 

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#10 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 01 August 2016 - 10:07 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 1, 2016

 

The price of EUR progressed towards the US Dollar subsequently when the GDP data of Eurozone eventuate. The statement of Fed with regard to inflation hawk resulted a possible rate hike for the U.S. dollar.

 

The EUR/USD pair transcend an upward trend on Friday. The financial instrument directed its highest possible rating approximately in the 1.1200 level. The resistance is set at 1.1200 level whereas the support lies in the 1.1130 level.

 

The ball bounces in a bull position as attested by the market indicators, the MACD moves within the positive zone which marked an increase in the histogram and registered the strength of the buyers. While the RSI entered the overbought territory.

 

The 4-hour chart identified the prices of the currency pair that stalled beyond the 200-EMA approaching to a higher probability of the 1.1200 region. The expected target will be in the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1200 due to the viable price return in the forex market.


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#11 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 03 August 2016 - 05:46 AM

Fundamental Analysis for EUR/GBP: August 3, 2016

 

The EUR/GBP pair traded at 0.8462 points prior to the Bank of England meeting this coming Thursday. Certain factors may weigh in on the value of the said currency pair, such as the Bank of England’s prospective move to cut its base rates below the US rates, which can add to its passive quantitative easing. However, some major banks are speculating that the dollar might be prone to a squeeze following the release of data on Friday.

 

The EUR has surprisingly done well in spite of the controversy brought about by the Brexit vote three weeks ago. It traded slightly lower than the dollar but is still higher compared to its value last February and has traded higher against the pound, its highest since three years ago. But the IMF has already stressed that Brexit is somewhat more damaging to the EU economy than it is for Great Britain, and the  latest ZEW survey has shown reports of confidence going down, with economic sentiment indicators decreasing to its lowest levels since Germany’s financial crisis last 2012.

 

Some economists believe that this data means that investors are more concerned with Brexit’s effects on the German economy than the financial market’s response to Brexit.

 

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#12 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 03 August 2016 - 10:19 AM

USD/JPY Technical analysis: August 3 2016

 

 

The Japanese Yen viewed to increased at its 3-week high after the Prime Minister of Japan officially announced about the stimulus package to reinforce the Japan's economy.

 

The price movements of the pair in the intraday chart seems bearish since USD/JPY go through a downward pressure for the past week. The pair continued to mark down at 100.64 level. The current resistance comes in 101.40 while the level of support can be seen at 100.40

 

The momentum indicators, RSI and MACD is observed to create sell signals for traders. RSI moved into the oversold condition, at the same time the MACD indicated strength in the seller's position due to its downward movement.

 

Presented in the 4-hour chart is the price movement of the instrument that are approximately in the downward trendline that tapped out the 50,100 and 200 Day EMAs.

 

Trader's next potential target exists at 100.40 and speculated a short-term bullish call close to 101.40.


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#13 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 06:50 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2016

 

The EUR/USD is trading at a lower value inside yesterday’s range and during the mid-session, which hints at an impending volatility and an indecision among investors. The most recent data on private sector jobs from ADP, which is slated to come out at 12:15 GMT, is being anticipated by investors since the said report will show that there have been 170,000 jobs added by the US economy last July.

 

The said pair might have a stronger value if the ADP data released will be below the expected estimate. However, if the data comes out higher than expected, then this will drive the EUR lower and increase the value of the US dollar. According to the daily swing chart, the general trend is a downward surge, and even though the EUR/USD pair has increased its trading value since July 25, this has not affected the current trend. The pair is also still trading within the post-Brexit range in spite of its high-pointing momentum levels.

 

With the pair’s current pricing at 1.1197, the closest resistance point will be the Fibonacci level at 1.1229. A possible trigger for acceleration to the upside might happen if there will be an overtake of the weekly high at 1.1233 and the upward angle at 1.1286. This might also mean another point for a deeper rally at an angle of 1.1356. The EUR/USD will be in a bearish position if there will be a crossover to the weaker side of the angle, which is at 1.1146. This also means that there will be possible targets coming in a support cluster at 1.1092 to 1.1091.


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#14 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 04 August 2016 - 09:38 AM

NZD/USD Technical analysis: August 4 2016

 

As stated in economic news reports, work compensation in New Zealand speculated for 1.8% but labor price index releases 1.6% compared to their assumption.

 

The trades for kiwi remained under a negative situation and settled in bearish position yesterday. NZD/USD pair dropped to its lowest price at 0.7140. The resistance is deployed at 0.7250 with the support that appeared in the 0.7150 level.

 

The MACD is plotted in the positive signal. The histogram narrowed down and reduced the strength of the buyer. RSI has been in the neutral territory. The oscillator gradually declined.

 

Moving average cross-over is presented in the 4-hour chart which indicated the EMAs 50,100 and 200 in an upward direction.

 

Analysts estimates that the market would shift to a bearish tone thus the seller's target comes in at 0.7050.

 
 
 
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#15 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 08:04 AM

Fundamental Analysis for GBP/USD: August 5, 2016

 

The cable pair GBP/USD went down by 150 points after the good news brought about by the Bank of England. The BoE added stimulus by cutting its rates, which increased the sterling pound’s trading value at 1.3165. The Bank of England increased its asset purchases by 425 billion pounds and cut 0.25% from its lending rates. It has also announced its plans to follow in ECB’s footsteps by buying corporate bonds. Money markets were also completely priced in a quarter-point decrease to the main rates of the central bank, and investors and economists believe that there will soon be new measures which can cause the economy to surge after the UK’s decision to cut itself off from the European Union.

 

On the other hand, the USD remained firm in spite of Thursday’s most recent low in six weeks, while the GBP remained in a tight range on top of renewed anticipation that the BoE will be cutting its interest rates for the first time since 2009 in an attempt to stave off a possible recession.

 

The dollar index fell flat at 95.56 on top of a six-week low of 95.003 early this week. The most recent focus for the USD is the expected release of US jobs data on Friday. It is expected that this will cause the Federal Reserve to increase its interest rates on the latter part of the year. US futures interest rates are suggesting a 40% chance of the Fed increasing its interest rates this coming December.

 

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#16 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 05 August 2016 - 08:43 AM

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 5, 2016

 

Recently, the euro dropped on the second day of the line. The base currency indicated a sluggish position despite of the progressed made by the USD. The investors shifted their focus towards the US non-farm payrolls data that will be issued today, since the Eurozone Economic Bulletin did not submit any relevant reports.

 

EUR/USD still spotted on the negative territory while the dollar is shown to trade in mixed trend yesterday and edged over euro. The resistance is placed at the 1.1200 level, the support is set at 1.1130.

 

The momentum indicator, MACD appears a divergence and indicated a sell signal while the RSI is approaching a downward position since it departed outside the overvalued area.

 

According to the indicator chart, the financial instrument returned to the 50-EMA and crossover the 100 and 200-EMA resulting to a neutral position.

 

If a price break occurred and the support level is less than 1.1130, therefore a downturn will yield out from 1.1050 to 1.1000.


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#17 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 08 August 2016 - 09:08 AM

Fundamental Analysis for USD/CAD: August 8, 2016

 

The USD/CAD pair experienced an upsurge at 1.3175 after employment data in Canada disheartened investors, while US jobs data went up at an impressive rate. The week’s forecast for the greenback showed a continued surge for the currency pair. According to Statistic Canada’s labour force survey, the market lost a total of 31,200 in jobs last July, the biggest one-month drop in the last five years. Another report also showed Canada’s international trade deficit, which reached up to $3.6 billion last June.

 

The said data caused the CAD to go even lower against the greenback, which caused a reversal of a short-term moderate strength. The Canadian economy was deprived of one of the most crucial support in the past years because of the stagnant consumer demand during the last two months. This is while the other sources of growth, like energy patch, business investment, and manufacturing continue its struggle.

 

Analysts are suggesting that a dip in the Q2 GDP is likely to happen, mainly because of the losses incurred after the Alberta wildfires. Short-term interest differentials in the USD/CAD pair will remain in the USD’s favor due to a divergence in the general growth trends. The CAD also weakens during the latter part of the year, and seasonal considerations are being foreseen for the said pair.

 

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#18 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 09 August 2016 - 09:14 AM

Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: August 9, 2016

 

The AUD/USD pair traded lower after disappointments brought about by Chinese trade numbers. The AUD is currently trading at 0.7609, which is higher than its anticipated trading range. The currency did not seem to be affected by plummeting Chinese exports which created hopes for stimuli from the PBOC. The USD eased by a small amount this week after the release of jobs data. Traders are anticipating the rate decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week and a statement from the RBA head following this week’s rate decision release.

 

The USD closed Friday’s session with nearly 0.5% in terms of gains while the US 10-year treasury yields went up by 10 basis points to hit 1.59%. The USD traded at 96.11 by Monday morning, putting pressure on the Australian dollar after coming close enough to a multi-month high just before the release of payroll reports.

 

China’s total export value dipped by 6.25%, decreasing from $192.01 billion to $180.3 billion in a span of just one month. Exports during the first half of the year also went down by 2.1% every year. This significant decrease in Chinese export numbers show that a weak yuan won’t necessarily become an advantage on the part of exporters, particularly in the textile industry, whose export reports showed a decline at 3.7% during the first half of every year.

 

The PBOC surprised financial markets after devaluing the yuan by decreasing its daily reference rate at 1.87% against the USD. It also bolstered its slow economy by front-lining its stimulus program, with banks allowing lending of up to billions of dollars to various business in order to maintain cash flow in the economy.


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#19 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 10 August 2016 - 09:06 AM

Fundamental Analysis for USD/JPY: August 10, 2016

 

The USD/JPY pair plummeted by 11 points, trading at 102.34 after the release of China’s inflation data proved to be better than its forecast. This helped the yen to rally since the Chinese economic situation might see some improvement. Investors are now awaiting more data from Japan, Bank of Japan comments and government statement about stimulus programs. The JPY was initially sent higher by investors, however its fiscal stimulus failed to meet the high expectations set by the market. The USD, on the other hand, went up by a significant amount following a positive US labor market report, erasing most of JPY’s early-week gains.

 

The Japanese economic stimulus remains as the main focus since BoJ will be releasing its Summary of Opinions from the monetary policy announcement last July 29. This particular BoJ statement has previously caused the JPY to surge since the new policy fell short of its previous expectations. The Bank of Japan is currently in a tight position as it has little room for more stimulus after its easing regulatory policies. However, BoJ predicts that it will be able to reach its headline inflation rate by 2017. However, only its officials believe in BoJ’s ability to reach its targets, since both businesses and consumers are in disagreement with BoJ’s prediction.


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#20 Andrea ForexMart

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Posted 10 August 2016 - 10:40 AM

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2016

 

The National Australia Bank indicated a downward direction in Business Conditions. Aside from it, the financial markets sustained under pressured condition just as when oil prices had a markdown.

 

AUD/USD established a positive result on Tuesday since the movement of the financial instrument progressed upward near its upper limit. The resistance stands at 0.7700, the support can be seen at 0.7600.

 

As expected, the MACD is situated in the positive zone. MACD histogram ascended and determined the strength in the buyers. The RSI arrived in the overbought condition.

 

The price of the pair oscillates in the 1-hour chart with 50-EMA. Its 50,100 and 200 day EMAs remained to upsurge, therefore all EMAS are in a higher position.

 

AUD/USD is expected to have a short-term recovery close to 50-EMA or 0.7600 level whereby the pair is overbought and the currency price is going to have a growth and increase in the investment price.


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