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Wave Analysis from InstaForex


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#341 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 18 October 2017 - 05:50 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 18, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 30-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Beige Book, Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1826. 
Strong Resistance:1.1819. 
Original Resistance: 1.1808. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1797. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1769. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1741. 
Original Support: 1.1730. 
Strong Support: 1.1719. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1712.
 


#342 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 07:28 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 19, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Spanish 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1849. 
Strong Resistance:1.1842. 
Original Resistance: 1.1831. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1820. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1792. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1764. 
Original Support: 1.1753. 
Strong Support: 1.1742. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1735.
 
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.  


#343 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 05:41 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 20, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Current Account and German PPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1904. 
Strong Resistance:1.1897. 
Original Resistance: 1.1886. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1875. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1847. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1818. 
Original Support: 1.1808. 
Strong Support: 1.1797. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1790.
 


#344 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 23 October 2017 - 07:43 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Oct 23, 2017
 
USDJPY.jpg
 
Today, Japan and the US will not release any Economic Data. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
 
Resistance. 3: 114.44. 
Resistance. 2: 114.21. 
Resistance. 1: 114.00. 
Support. 1: 113.72. 
Support. 2: 113.50. 
Support. 3: 113.28. 
 
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


#345 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 24 October 2017 - 05:59 AM

AUD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to buy
 
analytics59ee99b05fd83.png
 
The price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target. We now prepare to buy above major support at 88.39 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to at least 89.10 resistance (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, recent swing high resistance). 
 
Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing support above 1.2% where we expect a corresponding bounce from. 
 
Buy above 88.39. Stop loss is at 88.17. Take profit is at 89.10.
 


#346 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 25 October 2017 - 05:58 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 25, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 10-y Bond Auction and German Ifo Business Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, New Home Sales, HPI m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1815. 
Strong Resistance:1.1808. 
Original Resistance: 1.1797. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1786. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1758. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1730. 
Original Support: 1.1719. 
Strong Support: 1.1708. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1701.
 


#347 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 26 October 2017 - 05:59 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Oct 26, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Minimum Bid Rate, Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, Spanish Unemployment Rate, and German GfK Consumer Climate. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, and Unemployment Claims, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1875. 
Strong Resistance:1.1868. 
Original Resistance: 1.1857. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1846. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1818. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1790. 
Original Support: 1.1779. 
Strong Support: 1.1768. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1761.
 


#348 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 27 October 2017 - 06:08 AM

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 27, 2017
 
GBPUSDH1.png
 
GBP/USD is piercing once again below the 200 SMA, confirming that it's trapped in between a narrow range. That's why we're no clear in which is the dominant trend across the board, but still, we're expecting a breakout lower. If the support level offered by October 20th lows give up, then we might see a decline towards the 1.3037 level.
 
H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3373 
H1 chart's support levels: 1.3216 / 1.3037 
 
Trading recommendations for today: 
Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3216, take profit is at 1.3037 and stop loss is at 1.3398.
 


#349 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 30 October 2017 - 04:58 AM

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 27, 2017
 
 
EUR / USD pair 
Trend analysis (Figure 1) 
The downward trend prevailed last week. The market tested again the resistance line and drove downwards. The price may fend off the support line and move higher in the following week. Complex analysis will accurately show the price direction.
 
eurusd-w1-instaforex-companies-group-2.p
 
Fig. 1 (weekly chart). 
Indicator analysis on the weekly schedule (Figure 2). 
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2). 
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved up. 
In this case, the trend should be determined by trend type indicators. 
MACD Indicator (period 5/8/13). 
The linear part of the MACD indicator. Fast line (signal) - a line of white color. 
The slow line (main line) is the blue line. 
The result of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down). Histogram of the MACD indicator. 
Histogram - columns of black color. 
The result of the histogram of the MACD indicator is a downward trend (100 points down). 
Overall: the MACD indicator on the weekly chart gives a downward trend. 
Middle lines of the EMA. 
On the weekly chart, the following midlines are used. 
1 middle EMA line - color white (first shadow). 
5 the middle line of the EMA - the color is red (the first shadow). 
8 middle EMA line - the color is blue (trend of the week). 
13 the middle line of the EMA - the color is yellow (the trend of the week). 
21 middle EMA line - brown color (trend of the week). 
At the last run 8, the middle EMA line (blue) is moving down over the 13th EMA midline (yellow), which also moved down - the signal is up. At the last run 13, the middle EMA line (yellow) is moving down above the 21 middle line of the EMA (black), which moved downward - the signal gain of the upper work. 
The bottom line: the EMA mid-line system on the weekly chart gives an upward signal. The probability distribution of the indicators are as follows: 
- average EMA lines - 24% up; 
- MACD indicator (linear part) - 38% down; 
- MACD indicator (histogram) - 38% down. 
Overall: on technical analysis: the price on the weekly chart should have a downward trend. 
Calculation of the first shadow of the week (Monday) on a weekly chart. 
The middle lines of the EMA 1/5/8 are the lower signal. 
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is the lower signal. 
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the bottom signal. 
The bottom line: the calculation of the weekly candle from October 30 to November 04 showed that the price movement on Monday should move downward, but the final outcome depends entirely on the daily chart. Calculation of the second shadow of the week (Friday). 
The calculation for the MACD linear part showed a downward trend (100 points down). 
Calculation of the MACD histogram gave a downward trend (100 points down). 
The bottom line: the calculation on Friday for the technical analysis showed that the price may have a downward trend, which should be confirmed by the daily chart.
 
eurusd-w1-instaforex-companies-group.png
 
Fig. 2 (weekly chart). 
Complex analysis: 
- indicator analysis - down; 
- Fibonacci levels - down; 
- volumes - down; 
- candle analysis - neutral; 
- trend analysis - up; 
- Bollinger lines - up; 
- monthly chart - down. 
 
Conclusion on complex analysis - up. 
The entire result of the calculation of candle currency pair EUR/USD on a weekly chart indicates the weekly price would likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow in the weekly white candle and the presence of a second upper shadow. The upper goal is 1.1670. 
 
GBP / USD Pair 
Trend analysis (Figure 1) 
The downward trend prevailed last week. The price reached the support line at 1.3087 (white thick line). Most likely, there will be an upward trend next week. The level of probability for this scenario is likely shown in a comprehensive analysis.
 
gbpusd-w1-instaforex-group.png
 
Fig. 1 (weekly chart). 
Indicator analysis on the weekly schedule (Figure 2). 
The system of indicators ADX (Figure 2). 
On the last run, the fast line (indicator 5 - white) moved upward, and the slow line (indicator period 8 - blue) moved down. In this case, the trend should be determined from the indicators of the oscillator type. 
Stochastic indicator (period 3/3/4) on the weekly chart gives an upward trend (Fig. 2). 
The system of indicators RSI (Figure 2). 
When working with the daily chart, the following periods are used in the RSI indicator system: 21 (brown), 8 (blue), 13 (yellow), 5 (red). 
On the last closed candle. 
The calculation of the indicator RSI (5) on properties gives up. 
Calculation of the indicator RSI (8) by properties gives up. 
The bottom line: the RSI indicator system gives a downward trend. 
The calculation of the indicator CCI on the properties moves down. 
The bottom line: the CCI indicator system gives a downward trend. 
Overall: according to the indicator analysis, the price on the weekly chart should have an upward trend. 
Calculation of the first shadow of the week (Monday) on a weekly chart. 
Middle lines EMA 1/5/8 - the upper signal. 
The indicator "three lines" (the direction of the lines of indicators CCI (5), RSI (5), stochastics with a period of 3/3/4) is a neutral signal. 
Calculation of the RSI indicator system for the first tail is the upper signal. 
Result: the calculation of the weekly candle from October 30 to November 04, according to technical analysis showed that on Monday there will be an upper trend, but the price movement will determine the daily schedule. 
Calculation of the second shadow of the week (Friday). The calculation for the MACD linear part - gave a downward trend (100 points down). Calculation of the MACD histogram - gave a downward trend (100 points down). 
The bottom line: the calculation on Friday for the technical analysis showed that there will be a lower trend, but the price movement will determine the daily schedule.
 
gbpusd-w1-instaforex-companies-group.png
 
Fig. 2 (weekly chart). 
Complex analysis: 
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - down; 
- volumes - down; - candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up; - Bollinger lines - up; 
- monthly graph - up. 
 
Conclusion on the complex analysis is an upward movement. 
 
The total result of the GBP / USD currency pair candlestick calculation according to the weekly chart shows the weekly price would likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow. The initial target is 1.3336. 
 
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction. 
* The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#350 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:21 AM

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 02, 2017
 
USDJPYM30.png
 
USD/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook above 113.55. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. 
 
Therefore, as long as 113.55 holds on the downside, look for a further upside to 114.30 and even to 114.75 in extension. 
 
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 113.55 with a target at 113.30. 
 
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades. 
 
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 113.55, Take Profit: 114.30 
 
Resistance levels: 114.30, 114.75 and 114.90 Support Levels: 113.30, 112.95, 112.70 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


#351 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 03 November 2017 - 03:51 AM

The pound collapsed amid a hike in the interest rate by the Bank of England
 
The British pound collapsed after the decision of the Bank of England to raise the key interest rate for the first time since 2007. 
 
Such a market reaction might be directly related to the fact that in the BoE's statement, the central bank said that it only plans to increase the rate until the beginning of 2020. Furthermore, many major players closed their positions after the pound was growing throughout the week, which eventually led to a sharp decline even against the background of higher interest rates. 
 
On Thursday morning, data was released, which only managed to slightly support the British pound. 
 
According to a report from the company Markit, the index of supply managers for the construction sector in October of this year has increased to 50.8 points from 48.1 points in September, returning to a level above 50. The company said that the growth in housing construction had offset a decline in the construction of infrastructure objects. 
 
The Bank of England raised the key interest rate to 0.5% from 0.25%, but signaled that by the end of 2020 the rate is likely to be raised only twice. According to the analysts of the bank, inflation will approach the target level of 2% only by 2020. The Bank of England also lowered their forecast for GDP growth in 2018 to 1.7% against the August forecast of 1.8%.
 
%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%
 
As expected, the central bank's comments were tied to Brexit, which has a significant impact on the British economy, and also intensifies a sharp slowdown in potential economic growth. The Bank of England is seriously concerned about the reaction of households and companies to Brexit, which is an important risk for economic prospects. 
 
The British pound collapsed from its morning highs around 1.3300 to the support of 1.3100. In the near future, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's outlined plan can change the alignment of forces in the market. 
 
The euro rose during the first half of the day after the release of data, which showed that the number of unemployed in Germany in October had decreased. According to the report of the Ministry of Labor, the number of unemployed in October of this year has declined by 11,000, while economists expected a reduction of only 10,000. The unemployment rate in October was at 5.6%. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#352 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 06 November 2017 - 08:57 AM

Wave analysis of the USD/CHF currency pair for November 6, 2017
 
analytics5a000fa779db3.gif
 
Analysis of wave counting: 
 
The attempt to continue the development of the downward correction on Friday failed, and after testing the 0.9950 mark, the price for the USD/CHF pair returned to the parity-level region. It can be assumed that the currency pair remained in the stage of formation of the 4th wave, in C, which until the end of the day retained the elements of some incompleteness. At the same time, one can not exclude the fact that the indicated rise of quotations can be further developed, and the wave structure of the third wave, in C, will take an even more complex and extended form in time. 
 
Targets for an upward wave option: 
 
1.0080 - 1.0100 
 
Targets for a downward wave option:
 
 0.9966 - 23.6% by Fibonacci 
 
0.9922 - 38.2% by Fibonacci 
 
General conclusions and trading recommendations: 
The assumed wave 3, in C can be completed. If this assumption is correct, then the declining of quotations will continue within the wave 4 in the composition of C with targets near the estimated levels of 0.9966 and 0.9922, which is equivalent to 23.6% and 38.2% of Fibonacci. Wave 3, in C can further complicate its internal structure with targets that are above the price parity. In favor of this option, it can be two unsuccessful attempts to break through the mark of 0.9966. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


#353 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 07 November 2017 - 04:56 AM

NZD/USD profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell
 
The price has continued to rise perfectly to our profit target. We now prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.6968 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to at least 0.6827 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support). 
 
Stochastic (55,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 96% and also sees bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending. 
Sell below 0.6968. Stop loss is at 0.7043. Take profit is at 0.6827.
 
analytics5a010c29e57c1.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#354 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 08 November 2017 - 04:40 AM

Pressure on the euro persists
 
The European currency continued to decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, November 7. 
 
Pressure was already formed at the beginning of the European session due to the release of weak data on industrial production in Germany, which could significantly hurt the indicators of economic growth in the future. 
 
According to the report of the Ministry of Economy of Germany, industrial production in September of this year declined by 1.6% compared to August. Economists expected a decline in production, but only by 0.8% compared with the previous month. 
 
However, as noted by the ministry, the growth rates of industrial production as a whole remain quite good, and we can expect that in the coming months a rise in production will continue. 
 
Data on retail sales slightly helped the European currency. 
 
According to the report, retail sales in the euro area in September this year increased by 0.7% compared with August. Data for August was also revised downwards, as it dropped to -0.1%. Economists had expected a 0.6% increase in retail sales in September of this year.
 
1510054325_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
Compared to the same period in 2016, retail sales in the euro area grew by 3.7%. 
 
In the course of his speech, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, did not touch on the subject of monetary policy and a tapering of the bond-buying program. Basically, his speech was focused on the problem of overdue loans. 
 
Let me remind you that quite recently the central bank introduced new rules for handling overdue loans, which provoked a contradictory reaction. 
 
During the course of his speech, ECB Governor Mario Draghi said the joint efforts of all participants will be needed in order to solve the problem of overdue loans. He paid special attention to the key problem of banking supervision. According to the president of the ECB, joint efforts of banks, supervisors, regulators and authorities of the countries will significantly affect the problem of loans. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the bears are gradually moving towards their goal in the support area of 1.1540 and 1.1500, which can be achieved in the near future. As the main trade is unfolding below the level of 1.1580, we can expect that the European currency will continue to be under pressure. 
 
It is worth recalling that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will make a speech at the end of Tuesday, which can clarify the further prospects of hiking interest rates in December this year. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#355 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 09 November 2017 - 04:44 AM

Gold recalled its old ties
 
The uncertainty surrounding the tax reform, the growth of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the visit of Donald Trump to Asia allowed the bulls in gold to restrain their opponents who are on the offensive. There were rumors in the market that the start of the transformation of the fiscal system in the US could be postponed for a year due to the fact that the US economy is in good shape. If you add an incentive to this, it will increase the risks of overshooting inflation and a future recession. Given its current position, there is no certainty that the reform will be passed through the Congress: Democrats criticize the bill because of the losses of the middle class, while the number of dissatisfied Republicans is increasing. In general, the revision of the tax system is seen as a "bullish" factor for gold. Therefore, the problems with its implementation allows buyers of the XAU/USD to strike a counterattack. 
 
Investors have raised their share of haven assets in portfolios, looking at events in the Middle East. The mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, the attack on Riyadh by rebels from Yemen, the conflict between Turkey and Kurdistan, and the dissatisfaction of Donald Trump with decisions of his predecessors on Iran's nuclear program have pushed up oil and bond prices. The yield of the latter is under pressure, which, due to the existing correlation, has a positive effect on precious metals. 
 
Dynamics of gold and yield of US bonds
 
analytics5a02f1dc74079.png
 
Source: Trading Economics. 
 
An additional factor in supporting gold is U.S. President Donald Trump's tour in Asia. In Japan, Trump has already tickled the nerves of local businessmen, accusing them of non-commercial and non-mutually beneficial trade. In China, the US president raised the issue of ending its economic ties between Beijing and Pyongyang, which certainly provoked North Korea's discontent. Let me remind you that one of the most important drivers of almost 12% of the XAU/USD rally since the beginning of the year have been geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula and the US protectionist policy. 
 
At the same time, from the point of view of macroeconomics, the precious metal's situation is not the best. While the euro area and Japan's GDP are growing above the trend, the US economy has been expanding by 3% or more for two consecutive quarters, and is also prepared to increase the rate. In the case of tax reform, investors prefer risky assets. Moreover, global inflation is characterized by sluggish growth. In this scenario, real world market rates have the prerequisites for a movement upwards, which should be considered as a "bearish" factor for XAU/USD. 
 
In my opinion, the situation in the Middle East will soon stabilize, and the absence of conflicts with North Korea and the passage of tax reform through the Congress would raise the demand for the US dollar and return the quotes of precious metals futures for a downward short-term trend. 
 
A technically successful test of the upper limit of the consolidation range at $1262-1281 per ounce will increase the risks of rising gold prices towards $1,299 and $1,320. On the other hand, a breakthrough of support at $1262 will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the targets for 161.8% and 200% for the AB=CD pattern. 
 
Gold, daily chart
 
analytics5a02f1e8b52c9.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#356 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 10 November 2017 - 04:39 AM

European Commission report helped the euro
 
The euro rose against the US dollar after the release of a report from the European Commission, in which the forecasts for GDP growth and lower unemployment were revised in a positive way. 
 
In the first half of the day, recent data indicated growth in Germany's foreign trade balance, even despite the decline in exports, as imports decreased even more compared to the previous month. 
 
According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics, Germany's exports in September 2017 declined by 0.4% compared to August, while imports fell 1.0%. 
 
Germany's foreign trade surplus with revision amounted to 21.8 billion euros against 21.3 billion dollars in the previous month.
 
1510231210_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
On Thursday, the Bank of France released a report, which indicated that the eurozone's second largest economy might grow by 0.5% at the end of this year. Good support by the end of the year can be provided by France's manufacturing sector and the services sector. 
 
As I mentioned above, the report of the European Commission was published on Thursday, according to which the eurozone GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.7%. In 2018, the economy could grow by 2.1% against the previous forecast of 1.8%, and in 2019 predicts the growth of the eurozone's GDP at 1.9%. 
 
There are also good moments that can be found in the labor market. Economists expect unemployment in the eurozone in 2017 to drop to the level of 9.1% against the previous forecast of 9.4%. In 2018, the same indicator should decrease to 8.5% against the previous forecast of 8.9%, and in 2019 will drop to the level of 7.9%. 
 
According to the European Commission, at present, the eurozone is on track for its fastest economic growth in a decade, while in the labor market there is still a weak wage growth and a significant amount of unused resources. 
 
However, everything is not so positive when it comes to inflation. The report was revised for the worse. The European Commission forecasts inflation in the euro area at 1.5% in 2017 against the previous forecast of 1.6%. In 2018, inflation is expected at 1.4% against the previous forecast of 1.3%, and in 2019 the level is set at 1.6%. 
 
The sharp growth in the euro in the first half of this year forced economists to revise their forecasts, and the curtailment of the mitigation program and incentive measures could further hurt the inflationary picture, which the European Central Bank pays close attention to. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#357 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 16 November 2017 - 06:19 AM

Gold emerges from sleep mode
 
The problems surrounding the tax reform and the related weakness of the US dollar allowed "bulls" for the XAU/USD to go into a counter-attack. Gold enjoys an increased demand for safe-haven during conditions when the risks of correction of the S&P 500 significantly grows. Indeed, the desire of Senate Republicans to connect its plan of repairing the fiscal system with the dismantling of Obamacare, appears to be ideal. To a certain degree, the chances of a compromise plan through Congress before the end of 2017 are extremely low, even though Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin and economic adviser to the President Gary Cohn claim otherwise. Along with the approaching date when the problem of the ceiling of the national debt should be solved, this factor forces investors to get rid of the shares.
 
The tightening of monetary policy and the reduction in the balance sheet of the Fed are "bearish" drivers for the S&P 500, which grew due to hopes of an implementation in the tax reform. Now this prize at the stock index is ready for the taking. As a result, investors flee from risk, which is clearly visible as currencies of developing countries are being sold. I do not think that the panic will last long. The Fed remains committed to an extremely slow normalization, the health of the US economy does not cause concern, and the devaluation of the dollar contributes to improved corporate earnings reports. This is not the best news for the recovery of the precious metal from the "bullish" trend in the US stock market.
 
For more than a month, gold traded in the range of 3.3%, the narrowest since February 2013, while its volatility is at its lowest level in the last 7 years. The yellow metal went into a sleep mode, bulls expect to support short-term drivers of growth, while the medium and long-term outlook for XAU/USD appears "bearish." When central banks move from unconventional to traditional monetary policy, and the global yield of debt markets begins to move away from the area of long-term lows, it is possible to forget about the recovery of the long-term upward trend. 
 
Dynamics of the yield of US and gold bonds
 
analytics5a0c2a8e17217.png
 
Source: Bloomberg. 
At the same time, record shows that from June 2004 to June 2006, when the federal funds rate increased to 5.25%, gold prices rose 50%. From June 1999 to May 2000, the growth rate to 6.5% allowed the precious metal to add 6% to its value. What's the problem? In my opinion, parallels are unlikely to hold parallels, because the asset reacts sensitively to real rates of the debt market, and in conditions of sluggish inflation, the increase in nominal yield will put pressure on prices. Simply put, reasons must be sought in different CPI growth rates in the 2000s and now. It is highly unlikely that the XAU/USD pair will rise above $1,500 an ounce before the US economy plunges into a new recession. 
 
Technically, the release of precious metals beyond the downstream channel increases the risk of an activation of the "Dragon" pattern and the continuation of a downward trend in the direction of $1320 per ounce and above. In order for this scenario to turn into reality, a strike on $1302 is required. 
 
Gold, daily chart
 
analytics5a0c2a981b92e.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#358 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 17 November 2017 - 05:48 AM

Bulls on the euro need a breather
 
The US dollar managed to partially restore its positions against the European currency after a major decline, which was observed for several days in a row. 
 
Inflation data in the US slightly affected the quotes of the EUR / USD, but the statements by the officials of the Fed, which were scheduled for the second half of the day, led to the closure of a portion of long positions in the euro. 
 
Fed spokesman Eric Rosengren said yesterday that the data favors higher interest rates in December, and low inflation gives the Fed space for a gradual increase in rates. In his opinion, a very low unemployment rate, which is likely to fall below 4%, will sooner or later push up inflation. Rosengren also believes that the banking system is now in a much better state than before the recession. 
 
Today there will be a number of important data on the US labor market, which can confirm the forecasts of officials of the Fed. 
 
As for the technical picture, the large resistance level 1.1855, which coincides with the upper limit of the medium-term side channel. Only its breakdown can form a new upward wave, capable of updating the annual highs. 
 
The Australian dollar is in the middle of the last five years. 
 
According to the Australian National Bureau of Statistics, unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in October, while economists expected it to remain unchanged at 5.5%. The number of employees in October increased by 3,700, while the expected growth of 19,000. The number of full-time jobs increased by 24,000. 
 
Despite this, many analysts say that the pressure on the Australian dollar is due to weak growth in the third quarter of this year, as well as to the Central Bank's lowering of the long-term inflation forecasts, which crosses out the likelihood of an upswing in interest rates in Australia.
 
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As for the technical picture of the AUD / USD, the trade is near important support levels located in the 0.7580 area and 0.7535, where large buyers can return to the market again. Counting on a more powerful upward momentum, 0.7675, 0.7775, which will lead to an immediate increase in the Australian dollar to the areas of 0.7675 and 0.7735. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#359 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted Yesterday, 05:28 AM

The Euro used its chance
 
Eurozone 
The euro took full advantage of the rise of political risks in the US when it passed the tax reform plan through Congress, restoring half of the losses from the reduction of the last one and a half months, but in order to question the reversal of the trend to the south, something more important is required. 
 
Inflation in the eurozone continues to be low. The price growth in October was only 0.1%, the while growth of the core indicator slowed to 0.9% year-on-year. The weak indicators call into question the ECB's willingness to continue the policy of exiting the soft monetary policy. 
 
The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, speaking on Friday at a conference in Frankfurt, said that the low-interest policy does not harm the income of European banks that have remained stable over the past two years and, moreover, added that the asset repurchase program can be continued after September 2018, "if it is necessary". 
 
The euro, therefore, immediately lost the driver to growth and went into the lateral range. Most likely, it will continue to be cautious about the direction of the movement and at the beginning of the new week due to the lack of significant macroeconomic releases. On Thursday, the report PMI Markit on the eurozone countries, the forecasts are favorable, with the production index very close to the highs of the last nine years, the service sector index lags behind insignificantly.
 
analytics5a0fde81cc8d4.png
 
Given that the earlier reports released earlier by Ifo and ZEW indicated further growth of consumer confidence, the growth of Markit indices should be expected, which in turn can support the euro. 
 
Also on Thursday, the minutes of the ECB meeting of October 26 will be published. In the light of Draghi's latest comments, the market will be looking for an answer to the question whether the probability of announcing the exact date of completion of the asset buy-back program was announced at the meeting, as the answer to this question may change the long-term expectations for the euro. 
 
For a break above 1.1850 euros more weighty reasons are required. More likely is the consolidation at the achieved levels with the resumption of the activity of bears and the move towards support level of 1.16. 
 
United Kingdom 
The report on retail sales published on Thursday could not provide the pound any support, despite the fact that the dollar was exposed to considerable pressure. Retail sales increased by 0.3% in October; this was slightly higher than market expectations, but on an annual basis, it showed a decline of 0.3%, meaning consumer activity continues to be very low. Despite the fact that prices grew quite confidently, the physical volume of goods sold remained at the levels of a year ago, which indicates certain problems in the consumer sector.
 
analytics5a0fde934d3f1.png
 
Oil 
Oil by the close of the week resumed growth, responding to the reduction of the threat of Venezuela's default and the weekly report of Baker Hughes, according to which the rise in the number of active drilling rigs stopped. The current level of quotes , apparently, by the shale industry is perceived as insufficient to significantly resume investments, and without new drilling wells it is difficult to keep production at current levels, given the high rate of their depletion. 
 
The threat of deep correction has decreased, but the chance to update the two-year high, on the contrary, has increased. The market will catch the insider about the upcoming meeting of OPEC +, one must assume that the general background remains favorable for oil. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#360 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted Today, 06:13 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 21, 2017
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
There is no Economic Data will be released when the European market opens, but the US will release the Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1801. 
Strong Resistance:1.1794. 
Original Resistance: 1.1782. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1770. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1742. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1715. 
Original Support: 1.1703. 
Strong Support: 1.1691. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1684. 
 
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. 
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 





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