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Wave Analysis from InstaForex


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#321 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 19 September 2017 - 06:17 AM

Pound defeated a strong opponent
 
The British pound was marked by the best weekly dynamics against the basket of major world currencies over the past nine years, strengthening against the US dollar by 3% after the Bank of England signaled it was ready to tighten monetary policy. It is interesting to note that the US dollar did not look like a whipping boy either. The reduction of geopolitical risks around North Korea and the growth of the probability of the Fed's monetary restriction against the acceleration of inflation to 1.9% allowed the "dollar" to finish the five-day session in positive territory against the majority of competitors from the G10. The bigger the gains of sterling! 
 
It's one thing when the market pushes the date of the rate hike and then brings it closer, as in the case of the Fed. It is quite another when the chances of tightening monetary policy grow dramatically, as in the case of the Bank of England. Guided by the need to implement its own inflation projections, the regulator made it clear that it was going to raise the repo rate in the near future. And if someone did not believe him, then the speech of Gertjan Vlieghe forced them to do it. 
 
The most serious "dove" of the Committee on Monetary Policy said that the increase in wages, the growth of the world economy, and the household expenditures make it possible to expect the first increase in rates in the next few months. The derivatives market believes that this will happen in November. 
 
The probability of raising the repo rate
 
analytics59bfadcb6cdff.png
 
Source: Bloomberg. 
When an ardent opponent of monetary restriction speaks the language of the "hawk", it becomes the best driver for currency growth. The pound proved it, having strengthened during the day by 1.5% against the US dollar. 
 
The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England and Gertjan Vlieghe proved that the "doves" remained in the minority. Meanwhile, the pound's sensitivity to upcoming releases of macroeconomic statistics should increase. It seems that the BoE is now less worried than before about the problem of reducing real wages. However, if retail sales show a decline in purchasing power, then the problem will remind it of itself. The release of the indicator is scheduled for September 20. 
 
For the US dollar, the key event of the week will be the FOMC meeting. The open market committee can lower inflation forecasts and change the expected trajectory of the federal funds rate, which will affect the long-term outlook for the USD index. The Fed continues to be concerned about the dynamics of personal consumer spending, and the acceleration of the August CPI may eventually turn out to be the usual market noise. It is hardly to be expected that the signal from Janet Yellen and her colleagues about the act of monetary restriction in December will be the reason for buying the "dollar". The futures market thus pawns 59% of the probability that this will happen. 
 
Technically, the bulls managed to achieve a target of 161.8% in the AB = CD pattern very quickly, after which the correction risks increased in the direction of 1.34-1.345. To continue the northern trend to 1.377 (targeting 200% on AB = CD), customers need to update the September maximum. 
 
GBP / USD, daily chart
 
analytics59bfadd81b24b.png
 


#322 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 20 September 2017 - 05:52 AM

Does Brent feel the ceiling?
 
Oil continues in its northern trend, inspired by the increase in the forecast of global demand by 1.7% from the International Energy Agency, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's exports to the lowest levels over the past three years, and the decline in production of Iraq's second-largest OPEC producer by 260 bpd. Baghdad said that it exceeded its plans brought by the cartel, which is a "bullish" factor for black gold. Moreover, another role in its successes is played by the suspended state of the American dollar. 
 
As a rule, autumn is not the best period for Brent and WTI. The completion of the automotive season in the US leads to a reduction in inventories. In addition, the Energy Information Administration reports that there is an increase of production to 6.08 million bpd in October, encouraged by rising prices of producers of shale oil. Nevertheless, hurricanes allowed for adjustments to the seasonal factor. For a long time, black gold finally felt relief under pressure from the growth of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes. The decline of the indicator for two consecutive weeks reached 749 (-7 on the results of the five-day period by September 15). 
 
As the US refineries restart, the demand for oil should gradually increase and support prices because of optimistic forecasts for the global index from the IEA and OPEC. At the same time, $50 per barrel for WTI is a very dangerous figure. It attracts hedgers like honey bears, so it will be extremely difficult to gain a foothold above this mark. 
 
As the value of black gold rises, the question is returned to the market: what are the limits? It is obvious that the end of the hurricanes "Harvey" and "Irma" and the transition of the market to a normal state will return it to the idea of increasing American production with parallel insurance of price risks. This combination of drivers has repeatedly provoked attacks of "bears." I do not think that something will change in the fall. You can talk endlessly about the fulfillment of the obligations to reduce production by OPEC members. You can also discuss about the extension of the agreement beyond March 2017. However, the fact remains: Americans continue and will continue to use the favorable conjuncture for them. 
 
Dynamics of the US dollar is of no small importance. Since Brent and WTI are quoted in this currency, the growth of the USD index leads to a rise in the cost of imports in the largest consumer countries, and vice versa. 
 
Dynamics of the USD Index and Brent
 
analytics59c105eea68cc.png
 
Source: Trading Economics. 
 
In this regard, the expectations of the start of the process of normalizing the balance of the Fed and a rise in the probability of an increase in the rate for federal funds from 33% to 58% is of special joy to "bulls" that black gold is not able to bring. On the other hand, the positions of the euro against the backdrop of the ECB's desire to roll back QE look strong. After all, it has the largest share in the USD index. Thus, consolidation in EUR / USD does not put obstacles on the way of black gold to the upward trend. 
 
Technically, a resistance break at 55.95 will allow Brent bulls to continue the rally in the direction of the following targets (by 200% and 224%) in the AB = CD pattern. On the contrary, the inability of buyers to take an important level by storm will testify to their weakness and will increase the risks of correction to $ 54.7 and $ 53.1 per barrel. 
 
Brent, daily chart 
 
analytics59c1060d8f168.png
 


#323 IFX Yvonne

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Posted Yesterday, 08:31 AM

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 21, 2017
 
USDCHFM30.png
 
All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been reached. The pair is trading above its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the bullish bias. The relative strength index is calling for a new upleg. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9645. 
 
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rates unchanged. It also announced plans to begin in October shrinking its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities acquired after the 2008 financial crisis. However, according to projections released at the same time by the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank will go ahead for one more rate increase this year and three times next year. This blew a surprise to the market, as investors had previously believed a series of weak inflation readings might alter the Fed's monetary tightening plans. 
 
To sum up, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further advance to 0.9765 and even to 0.9795 in extension. 
 
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades. 
 
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9645, Take Profit: 0.9765 
 
Resistance levels: 0.9765, 0.9795, and 0.98830 
 
Support levels: 0.9625, 0.9590, and 0.9550
 
 
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.





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