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Wave Analysis from InstaForex


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#381 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 21 December 2017 - 06:15 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 21, 2017
 
analytics5a3b3b792dee3.png
 
Wave summary: 
The break above resistance at 134.50 told us that wave (D) still is developing and more upside towards the "old" 137.37 target should be expected to complete wave (D) and set the stage for the final decline within the huge triangle consolidation, that has been developing since July 2008. Support is now seen at 134.40 and again at 133.84. The later should be able to protect the downside for more upside closer to 137.37. 
 
R3: 136.05 
R2: 135.75 
R1: 134.90 
Pivot: 134.40 
S1: 133.84 
S2: 133.57 
S3: 133.24 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We will buy EUR at 134.10 and place our stop at 133.40.
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#382 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 22 December 2017 - 05:05 AM

The US dollar returns to the game
 
Data in the first half of the Thursday exerted pressure on the European currency, not allowing it to get beyond its weekly highs against the US dollar. According to the report of a statistics agency, the level of confidence in the manufacturing sector in France in December of this year declined. Thus, the index of sentiment of companies in the manufacturing sector was at 112 points against the November value of 113 points. Despite this, a high level of confidence supports the economic growth of France. Restrained demand for the euro is also associated with early parliamentary elections, which took place in Catalonia. It is expected that the majority of seats in parliament can go to parties that advocate integrity, and which are against the independence of Catalonia. Coupled with another result, the pressure on the European currency may rise again. Weak data on the annual growth of US GDP in the 3rd quarter of this year did not allow the US dollar to further strengthen its positions against the European currency in the afternoon at the beginning of the US session. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the US economy in the third quarter of this year expanded by 3.2% compared with the same period in 2016, which is lower than the previous estimate. According to the previous estimate, the annual growth of US GDP in the third quarter was 3.3%. Economists forecast that GDP will remain unchanged at the level of 3.3%.
 
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The main reason for the decline in the indicator was consumer spending, which dropped further during the reporting period than previously thought. Growth was noted in company investments and exports. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, an unsuccessful attempt to get beyond the resistance level of 1.1885 led to the expected downward correction in the trading instrument, which will likely be limited to support levels around 1.1830 and 1.1805. 
 
The British pound rose after data on reduced borrowing of the UK public sector. According to the report, in November of this year, the net borrowing of the UK public sector decreased and amounted to 8.7 billion pounds compared to the same period of last year. As noted in the report, borrowing declined due to increased tax revenue. 
 
As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, it is likely that the pressure on the pound will continue and that will lead to a decline in the trading instrument towards the lower border of the channel to the area of 1.3330 and 1.3300, from which it was possible twice to see the return to the market of large buyers of the British pound.
 


#383 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 27 December 2017 - 06:25 AM

Inflation continues to grow in Japan
 
Weekends and holidays are always accompanied by a low volume of trades against the background of lack of important fundamental statistics. 
 
Most likely, serious and purposeful movements will not be formed in the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD before the end of this year. 
 
Some leading experts expect that the growth of the US economy next year will significantly accelerate due to the approved program of tax cuts, and also due to an increase in government spending. Do not forget that at the end of last week, US President Donald Trump signed a new tax bill with a total cost of $ 1.5 trillion, which the budget will not be counted on. 
 
According to economists of Goldman Sachs, the measures taken by the White House administration will lead to a larger GDP growth in 2018. According to the data, the US GDP in 2018 will grow by 2.6%, and 1.7% in 2019. These data were revised upwards by 0.3% and 0.2%. 
 
Economists of J.P. Morgan also expects more significant growth in consumer spending, which will stimulate the economy of the country, adding to the previous forecast of 0.2%. In J.P. Morgan forecasts, the US GDP growth of 2.1% next year. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it did not change significantly compared to the forecast at the end of last week. Only a confident exit to the resistance level 1.1880 will lead to the formation of a new upward wave, with an update of the monthly highs of 1.1900 and 1.1935. 
 
The data on consumer price growth in Japan did not lead to significant changes in the USD/JPY pair, even despite the increase in the index which is a positive sign for the Bank of Japan. 
 
According to the report of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan, the base consumer price index in November rose by 0.9% compared to the same period of the previous year after an increase of 0.8% in October. While economists expected the index to grow by 0.8%. 
 
The general consumer price index rose by 0.6% in November after rising to 0.2% in October this year. Economists predicted an increase of 0.5%.
 
%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BC%D1%8F%D0%
 
Despite the lack of strong impetus, prices continue to grow for 11 consecutive months, which makes the Bank of Japan feel more relaxed. 
 
The index, excluding the prices of fresh food and energy, rose by 0.3% compared with the same period in 2016 after an increase of 0.2% in October. 
 
Today, the unemployment rate in Japan in November 2017 fell to 2.7% from 2.8% in October, as the number of jobs increased. As indicated in the report, there were 100 applicants in November who had 156 jobs compared to 155 in October. 
 
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#384 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 28 December 2017 - 05:02 AM

Prepare to sell below major resistance
 
The price is approaching major resistance at 113.76 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level to push the price down to at least 112.13 support (Fibonacci retracement, multiple horizontal swing low support). 
 
Stochastic (55,3,1) is dropping nicely from our 97% resistance with good downside potential. 
 
Sell below 113.76. Stop loss is at 114.54. Take profit is at 112.13.
 
analytics5a446b27d2b3f.png
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#385 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 29 December 2017 - 04:32 AM

Wave analysis of the EUR / USD currency pair for December 29, 2017
 
analytics5a449d8909564.gif
 
Analysis of wave counting: 
In a thin inter-holiday market, the EUR/USD pair was able to add about 60 pp in price and re-tested to the level of the 19th figure in the second half of yesterday. It can be assumed that the currency pair has reached the final stage of the formation of the wave c, in b, in c, in a, in ©. If this is the case, the pair can resume reduction quotes and mark the beginning of a future wave in a, and in © after virtually reaching the highest level achieved yesterday or after the growth to the level 1.1920-1.1930. 
 
Objectives for building a downward wave: 
1.1736 - 38.2% by Fibonacci 
1.1666 - 23.6% Fibonacci retracement 
Goals for building an upward wave: 
1.1900 
1.1918 - 11.4% Fibonacci retracement 
 
General conclusions and trading recommendations: 
The construction of the downward trend section continues, as well as the construction of the assumed wave b, in c, in a, in ©. If this assumption is correct, the quote will resume its increase with targets around 19 figures and the mark of 1.1918. Hereinafter, a decline in quotations may resume with the targets located near the calculated marks of 1.1736 and 1.1666, corresponding to 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci, and lower.
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#386 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 05:23 AM

Wave analysis of the USD / JPY currency pair. Weekly review
 
analytics5a4b380d1ffb0.gif
 
Analysis of wave counting: 
At the end of last week, the pair USD / JPY still began to decline, losing about 90 pp and was able to work out the mark of 112.50 in the middle of the Friday session. Thus, it seems that the currency pair has attempted to confirm the transition to the stage of formation taking a rather complex form of the waves c, b, a, ©. If this is the case, then in the process of the development of the wave structure of this wave c, b, a, ©, the currency pair can continue the already identified downward movement in the direction of the levels of the 111th or even 110th figure. 
 
Targets for the downward wave option: 
111.01 - 50.0% of Fibonacci 
110.14 - 61.8% of Fibonacci 
 
Targets for the upward wave option: 
115.43 - 61.8% of Fibonacci 
116.32 - 76.4% of Fibonacci 
 
General conclusions and trading recommendations: 
The pair USD / JPY continues to build the upward wave ©. Thus, the increase in quotations may continue within the wave c, a, © with targets located near the estimated levels of 115.43 and 116.32, which corresponds to 61.8% and 76.4% of Fibonacci (these goals will be reviewed). The assumed wave b, a, © can resume its construction, complicating its internal wave structure.
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#387 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 04 January 2018 - 06:16 AM

Traders are waiting for the Fed's Minutes
 
Data on the good condition of the German labor market slightly supported the European currency, which began to gradually lose its positions paired with the US dollar after the pre-New Year rally that was observed in the entirety of the previous week. 
 
According to the report of the Federal Ministry of Labor of Germany, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in Germany in December 2017 decreased by 29,000, while economists had expected a decrease in the number of applications by only 10,000. 
 
Data for November were revised. The final report indicates a decrease in the number of applications for 20,000, not 18,000, which was previously announced. The unemployment rate in December was 5.5%.
 
1514984214_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
While the market is just beginning to "swing" after the New Year holidays, all investors' attention today will be directed to the publication of the Fed's minutes from the meeting that took place last year on December 12 and 13. It should be noted that it decided to raise federal funds rates by a quarter of a percentage point to the range of 1.25% -1.50%. 
 
In the minutes, it will be more significant to expect further interest rate increases early in 2018. Analysts predict at least three of such increases. The timing of the next rate increase will also be important. If it is the 1st quarter of this year, it is possible that the demand for the US dollar may return, as there are no plans to change the policy of the European Central Bank until spring. 
 
Retail sales, according to The Retail Economist and Goldman Sachs, fell after the Christmas week. According to the report, for the week from December 24 to December 30, the sales index in US retailers fell by 2.3% compared to last week. In comparison with the same period in 2016, the sales index in US retail chains grew by 3.9%. 
 
As for the technical picture, the attempt of the bulls in the morning to reach on an important level of resistance in the area of 1.2070 was unsuccessful. As a result, the scenario began to develop in line with a bearish forecast. Now you can expect the support in the area of 1.2000 and 1.1955. Talk about the resumption of the upward trend in the euro will be possible after consolidation above 1.2055. 
 
The British pound, though not immediately, but began to decline gradually against the US dollar after a weak report in the construction sector of the UK. 
 
According to the statistics agency,, the index of supply managers for the construction sector of the UK in December 2018 fell to the level of 52.2 points from 53.1 points in November. It should be noted that the value above 50 points indicates the retention of activity, despite the decline in the index.
 
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
 


#388 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 05 January 2018 - 06:05 AM

Euro and pound win back their positions against the US dollar
 
Good data for the euro area and the UK in the first half of the day led to a slight strengthening of the European currency and the British pound after yesterday's decline, which was noticed after the publication of the Fed's protocols. 
 
According to the IHS Markit report, the composite PMI of the euro zone's supply managers rose to 58.1 points in December from 58.0 points. This once again confirms the fact that economic activity in the eurozone at the end of 2017 remained at a fairly strong level. This allows you to count on excellent indicators for GDP growth. Also, it is most likely that in early 2018, the current growth rate of activity will continue due to the flow of new orders. 
 
As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair in the short term, the exit beyond the level of 1.2035, which I recommended to pay attention to in the morning review, led to the resumption of purchases of the European currency. The next target is a break above the monthly highs, which will lead to the renewal of new resistance levels of 1.2125 and 1.2170. 
 
The British pound strengthened its position against the US dollar against the backdrop of good data on the service sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the UK GDP. 
 
According to IHS Markit's report, PMI's supply managers index for the UK services sector increased to 54.2 points in December 2017 against 53.8 points in November. Economists had expected the index in December to be at 54.0 points. The IHS Markit report noted that business growth accelerated at once in all regions of the UK.
 
1515072743_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
Today, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK was published for November which increased compared to October. Despite this, growth is gradually slowing down, indicating a decrease in activity in the housing market. 
 
So, according to the Bank of England, the number of approved mortgage loans in the UK in November 2017 was at 65 140 against 64 890 in October. Meanwhile, the average for the last 6 months was at 66 562, indicating a likely decrease in activity. According to the Nationwide Building Society, housing prices in the UK in December last year rose by 2.6% compared with the same period in 2016. 
 
Unsecured consumer lending in the UK also began to gradually slow down. 
 
According to the same Bank of England, unsecured consumer lending in November 2017 grew by only 1.4 billion pounds, while economists expected a 1.6 billion pounds increase in lending. Compared to November 2016, lending grew by 9.1%.
 


#389 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 08 January 2018 - 05:22 AM

NZD/USD approaching major resistance, prepare to sell
 
analytics5a52d2326705d.png
 
The price is testing major resistance at 0.7188 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish divergence) and a strong reaction could occur at this level to push the price down to at least 0.7041 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). However, we are also in a bullish ascending channel and only a break of this channel would confirm further downside move. 
 
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 94% and also displays bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending. 
 
Sell below 0.7188. Stop loss is at 0.7280. Take profit is at 0.7041.
 


#390 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 09 January 2018 - 05:57 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 9, 2018
 
analytics5a54449343149.png
 
Wave summary: 
EUR/NZD has declined nice and is now close to the first support near 1.6571. This support is expected to protect the downside for at least a corrective rally closer to 1.6800 and maybe even turn prices higher trough important resistance at 1.7025 for the next impulsive rally towards 1.7777. 
 
R3: 1,6890 
R2: 1.6800 
R1: 1.6701 
Pivot: 1.6630 
S1: 1.6571 
S2: 1.6447 
S3: 1.6298 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We are short EUR from 1.6795. We will book half profit here at 1.6675 for a nice profit of 120 pips and we will move our stop lower from 1.7085 to 1.6835 on the rest of the position.
 


#391 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 10 January 2018 - 05:47 AM

Good data on the labor market did not help the euro
 
Good data on industrial production in Germany, as well as on the labor market in the euro area, did not provide the expected support to the European currency, which continued to decline in Tuesday's trading against the US dollar. The single currency was affected by discussions related to the increased likelihood of verbal intervention from the European Central Bank. 
 
Let me remind you that yesterday there were rumors that the ECB could opt for an intervention in order to weaken the current high rate of the European currency, thus preventing the fall in economic growth rates and the decline in the trade surplus due to the appreciation of exports. 
 
In the first half of the day, data showed that industrial production in Germany in November 2017 increased by 3.4% compared with October, significantly exceeding the forecasts of economists. Compared to the same period in 2016, production increased by 5.6%. Economists had expected that in November 2017 industrial production in Germany would grow by only 1.9%. 
 
Production in the manufacturing industry of Germany in November increased by 4.3%, and in construction by 1.5%. 
 
As expected, in 2017 the labor market in the euro area continued to strengthen. 
 
According to the report of the statistics agency, the unemployment rate in the euro area in November 2017 decreased and amounted to 8.7% against 8.8% in October. The increase was 107,000 jobs.
 
1515500683_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
Regardless, some experts believe that an overly early winding up of the bond repurchase program by the European Central Bank could negatively affect the main factors that positively affect the euro area economy, which will lead to a slowdown in the decline in the unemployment rate. However, this forecast does not affect the first half of 2018, as, according to the results of the December survey of manufacturing companies, it is expected to increase the rate of hiring of labor. 
 
On Tuesday, it was also announced that France's trade deficit in November increased. This happened due to the reduction of energy exports and transport equipment. 
 
Thus, according to the report of the French government, the foreign trade deficit in November 2017 amounted to 5.7 billion euros against 5.3 billion euros in October. The current account deficit in the balance of payments in November was 3.3 billion euros against 2.6 billion euros in October. 
 
The British pound also continued to decline against the US dollar after the release of data from the British Retail Consortium. Thus, retail sales excluding volatile categories of goods in the 4th quarter of last year decreased by 1.9%, compared to the same period in 2016, the fall was 1.4%.
 


#392 IFX Yvonne

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Posted 11 January 2018 - 09:04 AM

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Jan 11, 2018
 
EURUSD.jpg
 
When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Industrial Production m/m and Italian Retail Sales m/m. The US will present a series of economic reports such as Federal Budget Balance, 30-y Bond Auction, Unemployment Claims, Core PPI m/m, and PPI m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day. 
 
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: 
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2020. 
Strong Resistance:1.2013. 
Original Resistance: 1.2001. 
Inner Sell Area: 1.1989. 
Target Inner Area: 1.1961. 
Inner Buy Area: 1.1933. 
Original Support: 1.1921. 
Strong Support: 1.1909. 
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1902. 
 
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


#393 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted 12 January 2018 - 05:55 AM

Protocols of the ECB helped the euro
 
1515680841_%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B
 
The euro did not receive serious support from investors after the release of good data on industrial production in the euro area. However, the publication of the minutes from the December meeting of the European Central Bank forced traders to change their view of risky assets. 
 
In the first half of the day, it became known that Germany's economy in 2017 grew at a slower pace than expected. According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, Germany's gross domestic product grew by 2.2% last year. Despite this, economists expected a more serious growth rate in the region of 2.3%. The surplus of the country's budget in 2017 amounted to 1.2% of GDP. 
 
Given the economic indicators demonstrated by Germany in 2017, it is not surprising that this country is the basis of the eurozone and the European Union as a whole. However, given the difficulties now faced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her post, it can be assumed that it is political problems that indirectly affect the main financial indicators in early 2018. 
 
As I noted above, the industrial production of the eurozone completes the year with an excellent upward trend. According to the report of the EU statistical agency Eurostat, industrial production in November 2017 increased by 1.0% compared to the previous month and by 3.2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists predicted that growth will be at 0.6% compared to the previous month and 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. 
 
The publication of the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank provided substantial support to the euro, as many investors found in them a hint of a possible curtailment of the asset repurchase program by the Central Bank this fall. 
 
The minutes indicate that the ECB can change its attitude to the credit policy in case the state of the economy continues to improve in 2018. The leaders also agreed that the policy should change gradually so as not to affect the recovery of the euro area economy. 
 
Weak data on the US labor market exerted even more pressure on the US dollar. According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of December 31 to January 6 increased by 11,000 and amounted to 261,000. Economists had expected the number of applications to be 245,000.
 


#394 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted Yesterday, 05:57 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 15, 2018
 
analytics5a5c2accdf755.png
 
Wave summary: 
The corrective rally from 133.09 spikes just above our upper target at 135.25 and should now be ready to turn lower again for a decline towards 131.11 before another corrective rally is expected towards 134.10. 
 
Short-term a break below minor support at 134.79 will be a strong indicator that the corrective rally from 133.09 has completed and the expected decline to 131.11 has begun. 
 
R3: 136.64 
R2: 136.05 
R1: 135.66 
Pivot: 134.79 
S1: 134.25 
S2: 133.65 
S3: 133.09 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We sold EUR at 134.74. We will place our stop at 136.75, but expect to move it lower soon. Upon a break below 134.79, we will move the stop lower to 135.75.
 


#395 InstaForexGertrude

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Posted Today, 05:00 AM

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 16, 2018
 
analytics5a5d7f9acc02e.png
 
Wave summary: 
We continue to regard the rally from 133.01 as corrective and is looking for a break below minor support at 135.36 and more importantly a break below support at 135.00 as confirmation that this correction has completed and a new decline 131.11 is developing. 
 
At no point should a break above 136.64 be seen under this count. 
R3: 137.37 
R2: 136.64 
R1: 136.32 
Pivot: 135.36 
S1: 135.00 
S2: 134.80 
S3: 134.35 
 
Trading recommendation: 
We are short EUR from 134.75 with our stop placed at 136.75. Upon a break below 135.00 we will lower our stop to 136.15.
 





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